March 08, 2010

IC Insights Raises Worldwide 2010 IC Market Growth Forecast to 27%

2010 DRAM market to increase 74%!

IC Insights' soon to be released March Update to The McClean Report will describe its newly revised 2010 IC market forecast. The Update will show that the worldwide IC market is now expected to jump 27% in 2010 to $253 billion and another 15% in 2011 to $290 billion. At $253 billion, the 2010 IC market would exceed by 8% the previous high of $234 billion reached in 2007.

One of the product categories driving strong double-digit IC market growth in 2010 is the DRAM segment. In fact, fueled by strong increases in average selling prices, IC Insights believes that the DRAM market will surge at least 74% this year. As a quick crosscheck to this astounding growth-rate forecast, if the January 2010 DRAM market stayed flat for the next 11 months, the 2010/2009 DRAM market would register 61% growth! The strong DRAM market is expected to help support the 100%+ capital spending increases now budgeted by many of the DRAM manufacturers this year.

The upgrade to IC Insights' earlier worldwide IC market forecast, which initially called for 15% growth in 2010, is almost entirely due to a revision in the IC market change expected for 1Q10/4Q09. While a moderate seasonal decline in 1Q10/4Q09 IC sales was previously anticipated, it now appears that the 1Q10/4Q09 IC market will display a 3% increase!

Because the 1Q09 IC market was so depressed, being the extreme bottom of the 2008-2009 downturn, the 1Q10/1Q09 IC market increase is likely to be greater than 50%. However, as 2010 progresses, IC Insights expects the quarterly year-over-year comparisons to fall back to more realistic levels (Figure 1). As shown, the 4Q10 IC market is forecast to be only 14% greater than the IC market in 4Q09.

It should be noted that IC Insights' forecasts for the 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q sequential quarterly IC market increases in 2010 include a relatively flat 2Q, a 9% increase in 3Q, and a moderate 3% increase in 4Q. These sequential growth rate forecasts remain essentially unchanged from our previous expectations. Thus, with only a moderate seasonal increase forecast for the IC market in the second half of this year, IC Insights' 27% growth forecast for 2010 still can be considered conservative!

Figure 1

Report Source

The McClean Report 2010 Edition

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