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November 01, 2018

 

Quarterly Year-over-Year Growth Slows Substantially for IC Market

Analysis shows decline from 23% year-over-year growth in 1Q18 to 6% forecast for 4Q18.

IC Insights’ November Update to The 2018 McClean Report will present an in-depth analysis and detailed five-year forecast for the IC Industry, which is expected to enter a period of cyclical “cooling” after an extended period of very strong growth.

Figure 1 illustrates the worldwide quarterly year-over-year IC market increases from 1Q through 3Q and IC Insights’ forecast for 4Q of this year.  As shown, the first half of 2018 started out with strong quarterly year-over-year growth for the IC market.  However, 3Q year-over-year IC market growth dropped to 14%.  Moreover, with the softening of the memory market, IC Insights projects that year-over-year IC market growth in 4Q will be only 6%.

Figure 1

Third quarter sequential growth confirms the slowing year-over-year trend. In 2017, 3Q/2Q IC market growth was 11%.  This year, 3Q/2Q growth slowed to a 6% increase (the same rate as the long term average).  As mentioned, the softening memory market has started to become a “headwind” on total IC market growth.  It is interesting that in 2017, the 3Q/2Q memory market growth rate was a very strong 18%.  In contrast, the 3Q/2Q memory market increase in 2018 was 8%, less than half of last year’s rate.

Report Details:  The 2018 McClean Report

Additional details and trends within the IC industry are provided in The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2018).  A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual-user license to the 2018 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,290 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,290.


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