The Cellular Phone—Still a Key IC Market Driver
2007 handset sales to reach almost 1.1 billion units!

Since the IC market meltdown of 2001, the IC industry has registered an excellent five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%. The automotive, consumer, and computer IC markets have each displayed 10-13% CAGRs during the 2001-2006 timeperiod. However, the most notable CAGR over the past five years is the 22% growth rate displayed by the cellular phone IC market. As shown in the May Update to The McClean Report, for the first time ever, cellular handset unit volume shipments are forecast to total more than 1.0 billion this year.

Cellular Phone Sales Leaders

Figure 1 shows the cellular phone handset sales leaders and their actual unit volume, revenue, and handset ASPs for 2006 and 1Q07 along with a forecast for the full-year 2007. Some of the key points to be taken from this chart include:

• For the first time ever, over one billion cellular phones handsets are forecast to be shipped in 2007.
• Cellular phone handset unit shipments, revenue, and ASP for 2007 are forecast to be +10%, +3%, and -6%, respectively.
• Nokia is expected to ship over 400 million handsets this year.
• Because of its lofty ASPs, Sony Ericsson is forecast to have higher cellular handset revenue than Samsung in 2007.
• Sony Ericsson cellular phone shipments are expected to surge at least 40% this year.
• Motorola is forecast to lose 4 points of marketshare in 2007.
• Nokia, Sony Ericsson, and Samsung are expected to each gain 2 points of cell phone unit shipment marketshare this year.

Figure 1

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