October 12, 2009
Foundry Sales To Increase Nearly Twice as Fast as Total IC Industry
Foundry IC sales are forecast to grow at nearly twice the rate of the overall IC industry between 2008 and 2013, according to data released in IC Insights' Mid-Year Update to the McClean Report.
From 2008 through 2013, pure-play foundry sales are expected to display an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), almost twice the 6% total IC industry CAGR expected during the same timeframe (Figure 1). Meanwhile, the IDM foundry business is forecast to grow to $6.0 billion in 2013, representing a 2008-2013 CAGR of 10%.
IC Insights defines a pure-play foundry as a company that does not offer a significant amount of IC products of its own design, but instead focuses on producing ICs for other companies (e.g., TSMC, UMC, SMIC, Chartered, etc.). Integrated device manufacturer (IDM) foundries are defined as those companies that offer foundry services in addition to their own ICs (e.g., IBM, NEC, Samsung, TI, etc.).
IC Insights expects the pure-play foundry market to fall 16% in 2009, to $17.3 billion from $20.6 billion in 2008. However, three consecutive years of 20%-plus growth is forecast for the pure-play foundry market from 2010-2012. Similarly, IDM foundry sales are forecast to fall to $3.2 billion in 2009 from $3.8 billion in 2008 before rebounded strongly through 2012.
Pure-play foundries are forecast to represent about 84% of total foundry sales in 2009, up from 81% in 2003. IC Insights believes that the pure-play/IDM foundry business mix will continue to shift slowly toward the pure-play companies even as some IDMs (e.g., Samsung, GlobalFoundries, Toshiba, etc.) increase their emphasis on the foundry market.
The IDMs' most pressing problem with their foundry business segments is expected to continue to be the intense competition from the pure-play foundries. With Chinese foundries SMIC, Grace, Hua Hong NEC, and He Jian attempting to grab shares of the foundry business and the more established foundries of TSMC, UMC, and Chartered all trying to protect and increase their existing marketshares, the business environment (especially pricing) has proven to be very difficult for the IDM foundry. Moreover, IC Insights believes that the addition of Samsung and GlobalFoundries to the mix of major IDM foundries will serve to put pressure on foundry pricing over the next five years.
Report Details, Including the New "Half-Year" McClean Report Subscription
IC Insights' September Update is a part of its new "Half-Year" McClean Report service. The 2009 "Half-Year" McClean Report subscription includes the 200+ page Mid-Year Update (released July 31, 2009), the August, September, October, and November Monthly Updates, as well as access to The McClean Report subscriber-only Webcasts in August and November. The new 2009 Half-Year McClean Report subscription is value priced at only $1,890.
Note: Current 2009 McClean Report subscribers will receive the products/services described above as part of their full-year subscription.
For more information, please visit www.icinsights.com/prodsrvs/mcclean/.
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IC Insights just released an update to its popular Global Wafer Capacity Analysis and Forecast report. The report shows that worldwide IC fab capacity has been dramatically impacted by the worst global recession in 63 years and that all of the old assumptions and forecasts regarding IC industry capacity are no longer valid. The study greatly assists IC materials and equipment suppliers in creating their long-term strategic marketing plans by showing current industry capacity, projecting future capacity loads, and dissecting capacity data by technology type, wafer size, geographic region, etc. For more information about the Global Wafer Capacity Analysis and Forecast 2009 report, please visit www.icinsights.com/prodsrvs/specialstudies/globalcapacity/
About IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc., based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is dedicated to providing high-quality, cost-effective market research for the semiconductor industry. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers coverage of global economic trends, semiconductor market forecasts, capital spending and fab capacity trends, product market details, and technology trends, as well as complete IC company profiles and evaluations of end-use applications driving demand for ICs.