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November 20, 2012

2013 Global GDP to Improve, Raising Electronic System and IC Markets

Though still below long-term average, 2013 GDP projected to rise 0.6 points to 3.2% next year.

IC Insights will release its 2013 edition of IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits this November.  The study examines and forecasts the growth of key electronic system applications and their impact on the IC market.

Throughout 2012, the expectations for global economic growth have consistently deteriorated.  Global GDP growth is now expected to expand by an estimated 2.6% in 2012, very close to the global recession threshold of 2.5% and well below the long-term average growth rate of 3.5%. However, the forecast for worldwide GDP in 2013 is 3.2% growth. Though better than 2012, this would still be 0.3 points below the long-term average growth rate.  With one month remaining in 2012, there are hints that the economies in China and the U.S. are improving, including stronger housing demand and hiring in the U.S., and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China.

Following “industry-average” electronic system sales growth of 6% in 2011, electronic system sales are expected to grow 3% in 2012—half the long-term average, but the improving outlook for global GDP is forecast to help boost electronic systems growth 5% in 2013.  As shown in Figure 1, the communications category is the only major electronic system segment expected to register better than 6% growth in 2012.  Computer sales are estimated to grow only 1% in 2012, down from the 11% growth registered in 2010. In 2013, IC Insights forecasts the communications category will overtake computers as the largest end-use segment—the first time that has happened.  Driving this growth are surging smartphone shipments.  IC Insights estimates that smartphones will account for 49% of total cellphone unit marketshare in 4Q12, and total smartphone shipments are expected to rise 55% to 750 million units for all of 2012.

The prospect of stronger electronic systems growth in 2013 has raised the outlook for the IC market as well.  IC Insights’ updated forecast shows the IC market growing 6% in 2013 and improving to an average annual growth rate of 7.4% between 2011 and 2016, more than double the 3.3% average growth for the IC industry in the previous 5-year period (2006-2011).

Figure 1

Report Details: IC Market Drivers 2013

IC Market Drivers 2013—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits examines the largest, existing system opportunities for ICs and evaluates the potential for new applications that are expected to help fuel the market for ICs.

IC Market Drivers is divided into two parts.  Part 1 provides a detailed forecast of the IC industry by system type, by region, and by IC product type through 2016.  In Part 2, the IC Market Drivers report examines and evaluates key existing and emerging end-use applications that will support and propel the IC industry through 2016.  Some of these applications include the automotive market, cellular phones (including smartphones), personal/mobile computing (including tablets and Ultrabooks), wireless networks, digital imaging, and a review of many applications to watch—those that may potentially provide significant opportunity for IC suppliers later this decade.  The 2013 IC Market Drivers report is priced at $3,190 for an individual-user license and $6,290 for a multi-user corporate license.

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